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Full pick history

Every settled market the engine has picked is listed here — hits and misses alike, with no cherry-picking. Hit rate is a draw-experience metric, not the engine's edge; the small-prize tier is near-certain by design, while the mid and longtail tiers are where genuine misses show.

Settled markets

549

Overall hit rate (draw-experience metric)

53.5%

294 / 549

Small-prize tier: 95.1% (270/284)
Mid tier: 16.8% (24/143)
Longtail tier: 0.0% (0/122)

Outcome

Tier

Showing 549 of 549 markets

Tier	Market	Side	Entry implied probability	Status	Settlement date
Mid tier	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	18.0%	Miss	8/26/2026
Mid tier	Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	17.2%	Miss	8/26/2026
Mid tier	Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?	No	12.5%	Miss	8/26/2026
Small-prize tier	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?	Yes	97.4%	Hit	8/26/2026
Mid tier	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	20.0%	Miss	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	92.3%	Hit	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	94.9%	Hit	8/25/2026
Longtail tier	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	0.8%	Miss	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	97.9%	Hit	8/25/2026
Longtail tier	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	1.2%	Miss	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox	Texas Rangers	98.5%	Hit	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	91.0%	Hit	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	96.0%	Hit	8/25/2026
Mid tier	Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana	Francisco Comesana	18.5%	Miss	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	91.5%	Hit	8/25/2026
Small-prize tier	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 24?	Yes	96.7%	Hit	8/24/2026
Longtail tier	Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	0.5%	Miss	8/24/2026
Small-prize tier	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?	No	96.8%	Hit	8/24/2026
Longtail tier	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	1.8%	Miss	8/24/2026
Small-prize tier	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?	No	93.5%	Hit	8/24/2026

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Hit rate is a draw-experience metric; edge is pending shadow-live plus cross-platform price-comparison validation. See the annual backtest report for methodology.