Predium Bonds
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PRISM shadow-live · Public scoreboard

Shadow-live (no real money at stake): the PRISM engine autonomously picks markets each day and publishes timestamps and settlement outcomes. Hit rate is a draw-experience metric, not a return promise; the engine's edge is pending cross-platform price-comparison validation (see the annual backtest methodology).

Updated 8/27/2026, 10:42:08 AM · 596 entries (549 settled / 47 pending)

Small-prize tier
95.1%
Hit rate (draw-experience metric) · n=284
Average implied probability
95.0%
Calibration gap
+0.06%
Cumulative prizes paid
$270.00
Cumulative staked
$272.67
Net
−$2.67

Simulated unit stakes ($1 payout per pick, cost incl. slippage) — paper record, not real funds

Mid tier
16.8%
Hit rate (draw-experience metric) · n=143
Average implied probability
14.8%
Calibration gap
+1.99%
Cumulative prizes paid
$24.00
Cumulative staked
$22.58
Net
+$1.42

Simulated unit stakes ($1 payout per pick, cost incl. slippage) — paper record, not real funds

Longtail tier
0.0%
Hit rate (draw-experience metric) · n=122
Average implied probability
1.0%
Calibration gap
-1.03%
Cumulative prizes paid
$0.00
Cumulative staked
$2.48
Net
−$2.48

Simulated unit stakes ($1 payout per pick, cost incl. slippage) — paper record, not real funds

Simulated illustration · Not actual results

Illustration: scaled to the current pool size

This block is a simulation shown for investor preview only. It applies the shadow-live realized multiples (misses included) to this week's interest budget of the pools' actual subscribed size. Nothing here was actually paid out — it is not a track record, not an official launch figure, and not a promise of returns.

Simulated illustration only: no real funds were staked or paid; figures are not actual results, not official launch data, and not a promise or projection of returns. The engine's 365-day backtest is near market-neutral / net-negative; hit rate is a draw-experience metric.

TierMarketEntry implied probabilityStatusSettlement date
Longtail tierWill Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?0.5%Pending9/1/2026
Longtail tierWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?0.9%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?96.2%Pending9/1/2026
Longtail tierWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August?0.7%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill Athletic Club win on 2026-08-27?92.5%Pending8/27/2026
Small-prize tierWill Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in August?98.4%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?91.5%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?94.4%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?95.3%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August?96.3%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?93.0%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?92.7%Pending9/1/2026
Longtail tierWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?0.9%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?97.0%Pending9/1/2026
Longtail tierIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?1.7%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?96.9%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierIran full airspace closure by August 31?97.9%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?96.8%Pending9/1/2026
Longtail tierWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?0.8%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?98.1%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?94.5%Pending9/1/2026
Mid tierWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?18.1%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?97.5%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?98.1%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?98.4%Pending9/1/2026
Mid tierIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?17.0%Pending9/1/2026
Mid tierWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?20.0%Pending9/1/2026
Mid tierWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?19.7%Pending9/1/2026
Mid tierWill Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?13.5%Pending9/1/2026
Small-prize tierIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?97.4%Pending8/31/2026

Hit rate is a draw-experience metric; edge is pending shadow-live plus cross-platform price-comparison validation. See the annual backtest report for methodology.

PRISM shadow-live · Public scoreboard