PRISM shadow-live · Public scoreboard
Shadow-live (no real money at stake): the PRISM engine autonomously picks markets each day and publishes timestamps and settlement outcomes. Hit rate is a draw-experience metric, not a return promise; the engine's edge is pending cross-platform price-comparison validation (see the annual backtest methodology).
Updated 7/11/2026, 1:00:26 AM · 138 entries (104 settled / 34 pending)
Small-prize tier
100.0%
Hit rate (draw-experience metric) · n=54
- Average implied probability
- 94.9%
- Calibration gap
- +5.14%
Mid tier
19.4%
Hit rate (draw-experience metric) · n=31
- Average implied probability
- 14.2%
- Calibration gap
- +5.11%
Longtail tier
0.0%
Hit rate (draw-experience metric) · n=19
- Average implied probability
- 1.1%
- Calibration gap
- -1.14%
Recent picks
| Tier | Market | Entry implied probability | Status | Settlement date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid tier | Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | 19.5% | Pending | 7/12/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox | 95.5% | Pending | 7/17/2026 |
| Mid tier | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs | 13.5% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Mid tier | Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 10.5% | Pending | 7/17/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England? | 96.1% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Mid tier | Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England? | 11.5% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Longtail tier | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland? | 0.7% | Pending | 7/12/2026 |
| Mid tier | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? | 16.1% | Pending | 7/12/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12? | 94.5% | Pending | 7/13/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? | 98.0% | Pending | 7/12/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 England? | 93.5% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? | 97.3% | Pending | 7/13/2026 |
| Longtail tier | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 6-12? | 1.1% | Pending | 7/13/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 England? | 94.5% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England? | 94.5% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Longtail tier | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 6-12? | 0.7% | Pending | 7/13/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Spread: Norway (-1.5) | 91.1% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England? | 96.5% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 95.5% | Hit | 7/16/2026 |
| Mid tier | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | 10.3% | Pending | 7/15/2026 |
| Longtail tier | Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins | 0.5% | Miss | 7/16/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers | 97.6% | Hit | 7/16/2026 |
| Longtail tier | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium? | 1.4% | Miss | 7/10/2026 |
| Mid tier | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | 11.5% | Miss | 7/10/2026 |
| Longtail tier | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | 1.1% | Miss | 7/10/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England? | 97.6% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England? | 98.4% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England? | 97.8% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Small-prize tier | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England? | 93.5% | Pending | 7/11/2026 |
| Mid tier | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium? | 11.5% | Hit | 7/10/2026 |
Hit rate is a draw-experience metric; edge is pending shadow-live plus cross-platform price-comparison validation. See the annual backtest report for methodology.